DREAD Risk Assessment — Epstein Network

Microsoft threat model applied to 52 persons. Scored 1-10 per dimension. Total /50. Updated March 7, 2026.

Methodology

DREAD is a risk assessment model originally developed at Microsoft for evaluating security threats. We adapted it to assess exposure risk for persons identified in 398K+ DOJ Epstein documents.

D
Damage
What institutional/personal damage results from full exposure?
R
Reproducibility
Can the exposure event be replicated across jurisdictions?
E
Exploitability
How easily can the evidence be weaponized by adversaries?
A
Affected Users
How many people/institutions are impacted?
D
Discoverability
How easy is it to find the evidence in public records?
46
Targets Scored
0
Critical (40+)
0
High (30-39)
0
Average Score
Name D R E A D2 TOTAL Assessment

DREAD vs CARVER: Different Questions, Same Evidence

CARVER asks: "Who should we investigate next?" — targeting priority. Military origin (SOCOM).

DREAD asks: "How bad is it when the evidence goes public?" — damage potential. Microsoft origin (threat modeling).

Key divergence: Ghislaine Maxwell scores 25/30 CARVER (convicted, low targeting priority) but 48/50 DREAD (maximum realized damage). MBS scores 24/30 CARVER (high value) but 28/50 DREAD (sovereign immunity blocks exploitation). The frameworks measure different things. Both matter.

View CARVER Matrix

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